Chances � The likelihood that
something will happen. For exam-
ple, �What are t he chances that it
w ill rain tomorrow ?�
Equally likely events � Two or
more events that have the same
chance of happening. Fo r exam-
ple, when you to ss a fair, coin,
heads and tails are equally likely.
Experimental Probability � A
probability that is found by experi-
menting. The experiment al prob-
ability w ould be ratio of the number
heads to the total number of trials.
Fair Game � A game in which each player has the same chance
of winning. Impossible Event � An event that cannot happen, f or example, the
probabilit y of putting a quarter in a
gumball machine and getting the
moon is zero Theoretical Probability � A prob-ability f ound by analyzing a situa-
t ion mathematically. Tr ial � One round of an experi-
ment
How Likely Is It?
Glossary
Connected Mathematics
Project
Everett Public Schools
Mathematics Program
Proposed Time Frame:
Approximately 6 weeks
How Likely Is It?
Probability
Unit Goals
Become acquainted with
probability informally through
experiments
Understand that pro babilities
are used fo r predicting what
w ill happen over the long run
Understand the concepts of equally likely and unequally
likely Determine and critically interpret statements of
probability
Web Resources
You will find web resources
www.illuminations.nctm.org
Simulating Probability
Situations
Exploring Histograms
Tips for Helping at Home
Good questions and good listening w ill
help children make se nse of mathemat-
ics an d build self-confidence. A good
question opens up a problem and su p-
ports different ways of thinking about it.
Here are some questions you might try,
notice that none of them can be an-
swered with a simple �yes � or �no�.
Getting Started
What do you need to find ou t?
What do you need to know?
What terms do you understan d or
not understand?
While Working
How can you organize the inf orma-
tion?
Do you see any patterns or relation-
ships that w ill help solve this?
What would happen if�?
Reflecting about the Solution
How do you know your answer is
reasonable?
Has the question been answ ered?
Can you explain it another w ay?
At Home:
1 Talk with your child about
what�s going on in mathem atics
class.
2 Look for ways to link mathe-
matical learning to daily activi-
ties. Encourag e your child to
figu re out the amounts for halv-
ing a recipe, estimating gas
mileage, or figuring a restau-
rant tip.
3 Encourage y our child to sched-
ule a regular time for home-
work and provide a comfortable
place for their study , free from
distractions.
4 Monitor y our child�s home-
work on a regular basis by
looking at one problem or ask-
ing your child to briefly de-
scribe the focus of the home-
work. When your child asks
for help, work with them in-
stead of doing the problem for
them.
At School
1 Attend Open House, Back to
School Nigh t, and after school
ev ents.
2 Join the parent-teacher organi-
zation
Investigation 1 A First Look at Chance
To build understanding that probability has to
do with unc ertain events, but has a pattern of
regularity over the long haul
Determine relative frequency from ex peri-
mental data
Observe that small numbers of trials may
produce wide variation in results
Investigation 2 More Experiments wi th Chance
Gain experience finding experimental prob-
abilities of unequally lik ely events
Understand that chance is an estimat e of
behavior over the long run
Understand that to make good decisi ons
based on experiment al probabilities, the
probabilit ies must be based on a large num-
ber of trials
Understand that each game of chanc e is fair
only if each player has the same chance of
winning, not just a possible chance of win-
ni ng.
Investigation 3 Using Spinners to Predic t
Chances
Develop strategies for finding ex perimental
probabilities with a new simulation tool: spin-
ners
Understand that to make good decisi ons
based on experiment al probabilities, the
probabilit ies must be based on a large num-
ber of trials
Investigation 4 Theoretical Probabiliti es
Understand that there are two types of prob-
ability; Experiment al and Theoretical
Understand the relationship betw een experi-
mental and theoretic al probability
Develop an understanding of the wo rd ran-
dom
Investigation 5 Analyzing Gam es of Chance
Understand two ways to obt ain probabilities
Develop strategies for finding t heoretical
probabilities
Gain a better understanding of what it means
for events to be equall y likely
Connected Mathematics Project
Mathematics in
Investigations
Phone: 425-385-4062
Fax: 425-385-4092
Email: mstine@everett.wednet.edu